Update 9/22/23 2:00 PM:
Tropical Cyclone Sixteen has been designated Tropical Storm Ophelia by the National Hurricane Center. There has been no significant change regarding expected impacts for Queen Anne’s County based off the midday updates. The only notable change was that the new official track has the system dissipating over the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday evening. See below for details regarding this systems and impacts tailored for Queen Anne’s County.
Track Summary: As of the 1100 update, Ophelia was located about 200 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving north at 12 mph. The system has sustained winds of 50 mph and is expected to become better organized throughout today as it approaches the North Carolina coastline, reaching maximum intensity as a moderate to strong Tropical Storm prior to making landfall Saturday morning over southeastern North Carolina. The system is then expected to continue northward Saturday into Sunday, dissipating over central Maryland Sunday night.
Timing: Impacts from Ophelia expand far from its center, with rain showers and breezy conditions to develop over Queen Anne’s County this evening. Conditions will deteriorate overnight tonight through early Saturday morning in Queen Anne’s County with rain becoming more persistent and wind speeds increasing. In Queen Anne’s County, the worst impacts are expected late morning Saturday through Saturday night. Rainfall and breezy conditions will persist into Sunday morning with improving conditions Sunday afternoon.
Rain: Total rainfall amounts of 2-4 (locally 6) inches are forecast. Flash flooding will be possible in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Should flooding impact area roads, do not attempt to drive through flooded roadways and heed any road closures.
Wind: Although Queen Anne’s County remains outside of the Tropical Storm Warning area, sustained winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 40-45 mph will be possible with the strongest winds expected along coastal areas. This may cause some downed tree limbs and/or toppling of weakened trees with some power outages possible.
Coastal Flooding: Peak storm surge of 1-3 feet remains forecast for the upper Chesapeake Bay, especially during the Saturday afternoon high tide cycle. Minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible as a result. Should flooding impact area roads, do not attempt to drive through flooded roadways and heed any road closures.
Tornadoes: Although an isolated tornado is still not to be ruled out, the greatest chance for isolated tornadoes on Saturday remains to the south of Queen Anne’s County. Any tornadoes that do occur will likely be short-lived.